California Governor Gavin Newsom faces a critical obstacle in his 2028 presidential ambitions as black female voters—the Democratic Party’s most loyal base—remain firmly committed to former Vice President Kamala Harris despite her 2024 defeat. Polls show Newsom leading among potential Democratic candidates, but the loyalty of black women voters could derail his campaign before it begins.

Black Women Stand By Harris

Harris lost every swing state in 2024 and performed worse than Biden among nearly all demographic groups except one: black women. A Washington Post exit poll revealed Harris received over 92 percent of black female votes, surpassing Biden’s numbers with this demographic. While Trump captured 20 percent of black male voters—an astonishingly high figure for a Republican—black women remained unwavering in their support.

The loyalty extends beyond voting patterns. Many black female voters consider criticism of Harris’ speaking style both sexist and racist. TheGrio published an article in November 2021 defending Harris with the headline: “Can a sista get a break? Kamala Harris is an easy scapegoat amid media’s broadside against her.” Author Sophia A. Nelson, who ran for Congress as a Republican, wrote that black women are “the mules of the world” who receive little recognition despite their critical support for Democratic victories.

Donor Class Shows Hesitation

The Los Angeles Times contacted more than two dozen top donors to the largest pro-Harris super PAC from 2024. Several stated they would not support another Harris campaign, while others declined comment. This donor reluctance reflects concerns about Harris being “damaged goods” after her loss to Donald Trump. However, the donor class may underestimate the political consequences of bypassing Harris, who remains beloved among the Democratic base’s most reliable voters.

Newsom’s Calculated Wait

Newsom recognized early that Biden lacked the capacity for reelection but understood the political reality. Black female voters would not accept a white male pushing aside Harris’ historic chance to become the first female and first black female president. He gritted his teeth and waited. Now, with Harris dropping hints about a 2028 run, Newsom faces the same dilemma. Any move against Harris risks alienating the Democratic Party’s most loyal constituency, potentially ending his presidential hopes before they truly begin.