How much can you trust polls? It’s a question worth asking, especially since the 2016 election, when so many polls turned out to be dead wrong about President Trump.
Most mainstream polls had Hillary Clinton leading by a wide margin, but on election night, we all saw what happened.
Nonetheless, polls can sometimes give you a good idea of which way the wind is blowing, especially when they come from many diverse, independent polling institutions and publications.
In this case, we have a situation where the upcoming midterm elections are once again swinging away from the Democrat Party.
Rebuilding the Blue Wall
The failure to win Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016 still hurts Democrats. Hillary Clinton basically turned a blind eye to these states and barely visited, despite her husband Bill urging her to take them more seriously.
The Midwest and Rust Belt were often known as the Blue Wall because of their reliability as a Democratic stronghold. Yet, for the first time since President Reagan, Trump showed this wall could be busted down.
Now, the left hopes it’s rebuilt that wall somewhat, with Biden spending more time in the area and polls that seem to have been hopeful.
Unfortunately for them, that’s changing. The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Wisconsin has a three-point advantage for the GOP at this time. We’re less than two months away; this is not the kind of news the Democrats want to be receiving.
Wisconsin welcomes and celebrates diversity – we won’t accept radical Republican attempts to divide us.
— Tony Evers (@Tony4WI) September 18, 2022
Will the Democrats Lose Wisconsin Again Like in 2016?
According to the official count, Joe Biden won 49.6% of the vote in Wisconsin in 2020, compared to Donald Trump’s 48.9%.
However, in 2016, Trump scored 47.2% of the vote ahead of Clinton’s 46.4%. It was a small margin of victory, but still a victory nonetheless.
This time around, the numbers are looking even worse for the Democrats. They thought Wisconsin was safe, but it’s not looking that way at all.
One specific poll from The American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) shows an even wider margin than the average from Real Clear Politics.
According to AARP, the GOP is up by 10 points in the Senate races and up by seven in the race for governor. If this is even partly correct, Democrats are about to get washed out big time in the Cheese State.
As the November midterms quickly approach, new polling data suggests the GOP have strong leads in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.https://t.co/2ZRJEA3CJ0
— The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) September 30, 2022
The Bottom Line
Senator Ron Johnson has a good outlook here and Wisconsin is once again swinging away from the Democratic column.
Despite earlier polls looking pretty good, the constant failures and incompetence of Biden, along with growing inflation and voter frustration, have changed the picture.
If a presidential election were held today between Trump and Biden in Wisconsin, there’s little doubt Trump would win, despite all the controversy and the recent FBI raid.
